2025-01-02 08:08:00
The world in 2024 stood at a crossroads, with global fault lines deepening and crises multiplying. Wars in Europe and the Middle East upended the global order, disrupting energy markets and food security, while cascading challenges rippled through every region. The Indo-Pacific remained a theatre of contention, with China’s aggressive manoeuvres destabilising the South China Sea and its borders with India. In Europe, the conflict in Ukraine continued to strain global energy supplies and exacerbated inflation. The Middle East witnessed escalating tensions with the Israel-Hamas conflict, which drew in international actors and deepened divides across the region. Meanwhile, Myanmar’s internal strife and Bangladesh’s political unrest threatened regional equilibrium, highlighting the fragility of South Asia’s neighbourhood. These crises coupled with the persistent threat of climate change and rising inequality underscored the interconnectedness of global challenges and the urgent need for coordinated responses.
In this fraught environment, India’s foreign policy demonstrated remarkable clarity and resilience. Balancing strategic autonomy with global engagement, India ensured its interests were safeguarded even as it contributed to stability beyond its borders. Its economic strategies, such as diversifying energy imports and fostering renewable energy partnerships, underscored a pragmatic approach to securing energy independence amidst global volatility.
Trump’s Return
Major elections in 2024 added layers of geopolitical uncertainty. The return of Donald Trump as US President brought shifts in Washington’s foreign policy priorities. A powerful Trump presidency represents both opportunities and challenges for India. While his stated focus is on ending the two major conflicts, countering China and deepening ties with like-minded democracies aligns with India’s goals, potential shifts in trade policies and his transactional approach to alliances could require India to navigate complexities with caution and tact. Furthermore, Trump’s stricter immigration policies, such as changes to H-1B visa regulations and family-based immigration programmes, could significantly impact Indian professionals and the diaspora. Nonetheless, the bipartisan consensus on strengthening India-US relations remains intact and as the world’s two largest democracies, the partnership continues to evolve as a cornerstone of stability in an increasingly polarised world. India’s diplomatic agility will be essential in navigating these dynamics.
India’s remarkable legacy in the G20 under its Presidency is being carried forward by the successive presidencies of Brazil and South Africa. The continuation of India’s policies rooted in human-centric globalisation and working for the global common good have enhanced its foreign policy imprint on the global stage. The concept of Vishwa Mitra (Friend to the World) reflects India’s commitment to collaboration for global well-being and sustainable development. From its leadership in the G20 to its vaccine diplomacy, its advocacy for equitable access to digital public goods to its role as a first responder in times of need, India exemplifies the principles of inclusivity and shared progress.
Under PM Modi’s leadership, India has positioned itself as a partner for addressing global challenges, fostering mutual respect and advancing a vision of a peaceful and equitable world order. His commitment to achieving peace through diplomacy and dialogue was borne out by his visits to Russia and Ukraine in this endeavour.
Enhancing Defence
At the same time, the global conflicts of 2024 underscored the urgent need for robust defence capabilities. With global military spending at unprecedented levels, India’s defence budget of $81 billion signals its commitment to national security. Amid rising tensions, India’s focus on self-reliance, in critical sectors like defence manufacturing and emerging technologies, demonstrates its ability to innovate while meeting strategic needs.
Regionally, India has had to deal with unprecedented challenges arising out of economic turmoil and great power rivalry in our immediate region. In Sri Lanka and the Maldives, it extended financial and technical support to stabilise economies, while calibrated diplomacy ensured continued engagement with Bangladesh. To safeguard its core interests in Bangladesh amidst its political unrest, India needs more proactive engagement with all stakeholders in the country. The Israel-Hamas conflict further tested India’s diplomatic balance as it safeguarded its diaspora, provided humanitarian aid and called for peaceful resolutions.
Strategic Autonomy Is Key
As 2025 approaches, India must continue leveraging its strengths while addressing emerging challenges. India’s policy of pragmatic strategic autonomy will be crucial in navigating multilateral platforms and addressing the complexities of emerging geopolitics. Significantly upping our strategic ties with the US is an opportunity afforded by Trump’s unprecedented win. Engaging with trusted partners and those not so trusted, alike, is necessary if we are to secure our larger interests.
Geopolitically, tactfully managing China’s assertiveness and ensuring regional stability will demand sustained engagement with Quad partners and in multilateral forums like BRICS and the SCO. Any rapprochement with China would need to be calibrated on peace and tranquillity in the border areas.
India’s foreign policy will also need to continue to follow its ‘neighbourhood first’ approach. Managing relations with our immediate neighbours will not only secure our vital national interests but allow us to deal with our major interlocutors more effectively. Extending PM Modi’s most vision of ‘sabka saath, sabka vikas‘ in our immediate neighbourhood will ensure ‘sabka vishwas’.
On the global stage, India can further leverage its G20 legacy to champion the concerns of the Global South, particularly in debt relief and climate financing. India must continue its support for Africa and countries in the developing world, including by extending critical assistance in areas such as infrastructure development, healthcare and renewable energy. Expanding digital public infrastructure as a global public good will not only elevate India’s technological leadership but also foster inclusivity. Energy security will be critical in 2025, and India must continue to diversify its energy sources and accelerate its clean energy transition.
(Harsh Vardhan Shringla is a former Foreign Secretary of India and Ambassador to USA, Bangladesh and Thailand.)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author
China,Foreign policy,Modi
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