2024-12-29 18:30:00
Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was one of the first global leaders to congratulate US President-elect Donald Trump on his victory last month, calling it “history’s greatest comeback”.
The message was a strong political signal to the world that Israel intends to sharpen its foreign policy in the Middle East with Trump back in the saddle.
It is no secret that Israel was always rooting for a Trump victory as it portends smoother ties between Washington and Jerusalem as Netanyahu navigates one of the toughest and longest periods of conflicts in the Middle East.
During his first term as President (2016 to 2020), Trump broke international norms and recognised Israel & sovereignty over the Golan Heights, a Syrian territory largely occupied by the country.
He also took the historic step of declaring Jerusalem as Israel’s capital and relocating US embassy there.
However, during his second term in office, Trump will be saddled with a protracted war between Israel and Hamas, for which he has squarely blamed the outgoing Joe Biden administration.
It would take more than just lip service and smart diplomacy for Trump to handle the Middle East situation, especially when over 40,000 people have already been killed (see chart) in the Gaza strip alone since last year.
While a Trump 2.0 signals continuity in US-Israel ties, the new US President will have to ensure that he finds a peaceful resolution to the conflict – which he has promised – and address the growing anti-war and military aid sentiments, particularly among younger Americans.
US aid to Israel
Israel has remained the single largest recipient of American military aid over the years.
Despite the absence of any formal military pact with Israel, America has provided advanced weapon systems to the Jewish country which has helped it fend off persistent threats from neighbours like Syria, Lebanon as well as groups like Hamas.
According to data from various sources cited by US based think tank Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), US has given roughly $228 billion (see chart) in military aid to Israel since 1946. This does not include about $82 of economic aid.
While US has sanctioned considerable military aid for countries like Afghanistan and Egypt as well, Israel has been the largest cumulative recipient of its foreign aid since its founding.
Since the October 7, 2023 Hamas invasion of Israel, US has provided at least $12.5–$17.9 billion in military aid to the Jewish country. This includes funds for weapon replenishment and appropriations under the 2024 agreements.
Overall, it has made nearly 100 military aid transfers to Israel over the last year, including expedited deliveries of weapons from a US stockpile in Israel and leased Iron Dome batteries.
A report in the CFR said that nearly $3.3 billion of US aid to Israel annually comes as grants under the e Foreign Military Financing (FMF) program, primarily for the purchase of US military equipment.
As of October 2023, Israel managed $24 billion in active FMF cases, with US aid covering about 15% of its defense budget, though domestic procurement benefits are set to phase out.
Additionally, Washington also allocates $500 million annually for joint US-Israeli missile defence programs, including the Iron Dome, David’s Sling and Arrow II systems.
Over the years, US arms sales to Israel have added up to nearly $55 billion (see chart). This is the second largest after Saudi Arabia.
In fact, the scale of US weapon sales to Israel has often raised concerns over war profiteering among many Americans.
Anti-war sentiment
Notably, recent polls reveal a sharp generational divide in how Americans view Washington’s military aid to Israel.
The support is strongest among older adults aged 65 and above, while it significantly declines among younger adults aged 18 to 29, according to data collected by Pew Research.
The study revealed that nearly 45% of Americans between the age of 18 and 29 oppose US’s military aid to Israel. On the other hand, nearly 60% of Americans over 65 support the same.
The study by Pew Research found that nearly 61% of Americans want the US to play a key role in diplomatically resolving the Israel-Hamas war. This reflects that there is a general anti-war sentiment among the people of the US.
Another survey by Pearson and AP revealed that nearly 4 in 10 Americans feel that the US is spending too much on military aid for Israel.
This means Trump will have to take quick steps to put a perceptible peace plan in place after his return to the Oval Office. Moreover, US’s ballooning military support to Israel will also stick out like a sore thumb for a Trump administration, which is increasingly protectionist and fiscally conservative.
