One-In-Six Chance Of Massive Volcanic Eruption This Century. Will It Trigger Climate Chaos?

A global disaster is in the offing and scientists are already warning about it. There is a one-in-six chance that a massive volcanic eruption will disrupt all life on the planet as we know today, this century. Such a doomsday-level event might trigger a “climate chaos” that could rival the eruption of Mount Tambora in Indonesia in 1815. According to Dr Markus Stoffel, a climate professor at the University of Geneva, as cited by CNN, the intensity of the eruption more than 200 years ago led to Earth witnessing a “year without summer”.

The eruption released 24 cubic miles of gases, dust, and rock into the atmosphere, causing global temperatures to plummet, eventually leading to a 1-degree-Celsius cooling of the Northern Hemisphere.

Scientists warn that even with state-of-the-art sensors and seismic instruments at disposal, predicting when the volcano eruption will hit us is impossible. However, one thing is certain, as per Dr Stoffel: “Humanity does not have any plan.”

“It’s a more unstable world now. The effects might be even worse than we saw back in 1815,” he added.

Climate change influences volcanic activity massively. The melting of ice caps due to rising temperatures can reduce pressure on magma chambers, potentially leading to more frequent eruptions. Additionally, more intense rainfall, another byproduct of climate change, can infiltrate deep underground, interacting with magma and possibly triggering volcanic activity.

Despite the potential for a temporary global cooling following a massive eruption, scientists caution against viewing it as a silver lining in the fight against climate change.

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A bleak future

The economic repercussions of a massive eruption could be staggering, with losses potentially reaching into trillions. Moreover, any cooling effect would be momentary, with the planet soon returning to its warming trajectory due to ongoing greenhouse gas emissions.

Dr Stoffel hopes that sounding the alarm about such a dystopian future would prompt the public and policymakers to better prepare for the event. From evacuation plans to preparing food aid to creating disaster shelters, every policy regarding a catastrophic event needs a rethink

The urgency of the warning was recently felt in Hawaii when the Kilauea volcano, one of the most active volcanoes in the world, erupted again. Scientists measured that it spewed columns of lava 80 meters (260 feet) into the air. The volcano has been active since 1983 and prior to December, the last eruption was observed in June 2024 and lasted about five days.

It is one of six active volcanoes located in the Hawaiian Islands, which also include Mauna Loa, the largest volcano in the world, though Kilauea is far more active.