Pakistan Tries To Arm-Twist China Over Gwadar Port. The Plan Backfires.

Nations, like people, often reflect behavioural patterns. They have a reputation, depict habitual traits, and usually find the essence of their identity in their nature. So is the case with Pakistan – a country which never fails to find itself on the wrong side of history for its conduct – with friends and foes alike.

The latest in its series of antics, the nation, mired in a worrisome concoction of terrorism, poverty, inflation, rigged elections, civil unrest, political instability, and economic misery tried to arm-twist its “all-weather ally” China. As one would guess correctly – it didn’t end well, with Islamabad getting snubbed, yet again.

PAKISTAN’S ‘TAKE IT OR LEAVE IT’ TACTICS WITH CHINA

A high-level meeting was organised recently between senior government and military officials of Pakistan and China. Deliberations and negotiations over the future use of the strategic port of Gwadar in Balochistan was being discussed in accordance with the so-called ‘China-Pakistan Economic Corridor’. At this point, Pakistan, which perhaps momentarily forgot which side of the negotiating table its was sitting on, decided to flex its muscle.

Islamabad reportedly told Beijing that if it wants a military base in Gwadar, Pakistan might permit it only if Beijing is willing to arm it with a second-strike nuclear capability – catering to its age-old obsession to match New Delhi, which achieved it on its own. This tone, border-lining a threat, did not go down well with Beijing, which squarely rejected the outrageous demand and decided to put future talks on hold indefinitely over Islamabad’s baffling audacity.

A breakdown of diplomatic and military talks with China, even momentarily, does not bode well for Pakistan as cash-strapped Islamabad depends very heavily on economic bail-out packages from Beijing. China has also, for long, been a saviour for Pakistan’s military, supplying it with a majority of its arms and ammunition – everything from bullets to fighter jets. Pakistan’s Army, which has a history of interfering in decisions taken by its civilian government, is currently facing a crisis with large-scale anger and protests across the country over rigged elections and imprisonment of former Prime Minister Imran Khan, cannot afford to upset Beijing amidst the current situation on ground.

According to a report in Drop Site News, the Pak-China relationship is apparently “in free fall over public and private disputes over security concerns, as well as China’s demand to build a military base inside Pakistan”. Earlier this year, the news website reported on advanced talks over setting up a Chinese military base in Gwadar. According to classified Pakistani military documents seen by the news website, Islamabad had given “private assurances” to Beijing that it would be “permitted to transform Gwadar into a permanent base for the Chinese military”.

Retracting on its assurances, Pakistan is now making massive demands in return for the strategic port. Islamabad has asked Beijing to fulfill all its demands – military, economic, and otherwise – to protect it from a West-led backlash over handing over the port to China. But its demand for a nuclear triad and second strike nuclear capability goes well beyond even Beijing to consider.

China would open itself up to massive worldwide sanctions and isolation if it violates the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty or NPT by providing such advanced nuclear weapons capability or technology to a non-signatory of the NPT. As a signatory of the treaty, China is a classified Nuclear-Weapons State or NWS. The treaty explicitly prohibits all NWS countries from transferring any atomic or nuclear weapons, technology, or material to any non-NWS nation.

With such a demand, Pakistan is thereby telling China to put itself in peril just so that Islamabad can fulfill its obsession to counter New Delhi.

Beijing is also seething with anger after Islamabad did not allow the Chinese Navy to make a port of call at Gwadar port during the joint naval Sea Guardians III exercise between the two countries. Pakistan had done this after pressure from the United States over American sensitivity about a Chinese military presence at the strategically significant port.

WHAT IS A SECOND STRIKE NUCLEAR CAPABILITY

A second strike nuclear capability is the topmost deterrent any nuclear-weapons state can aim or aspire for. It is the most prized form of military deterrent a country can have. It means that a country which has faced a crippling conventional or nuclear attack from an enemy state still posses the capability to strike back with its nuclear weapons.

This is generally supported by a nuclear triad – which means that a country has the capability to launch its nuclear weapons from all three – surface, air, and sub-surface methods. Surface missiles and vehicles that carry them means the on-ground or land (silos) as well as at sea (from warships). Airborne means firing a nuclear missile from an aircraft, and sub-surface means firing a nuclear missile from under the ground or beneath the sea (submarine). SLBMs give the country the option to strike back even if its mainland has faced a crippling attack.

A second strike capability make the stakes of a first strike by the enemy too high, as it results in a devastating strike back on that enemy nation.