Will Islamic State terror spring back in post-Assad power vacuum?

“History shows how quickly moments of promise can descend into conflict and violence. ISIS will try to use this period to re-establish its capabilities, to create safe havens”, warned Anthony Blinken, the US Secretary of State, after the Bashar al-Assad regime in Syria was toppled on December 8. People flooded the streets of Damascus to celebrate. But amid the celebrations was a foreboding — the victory of the rebels might lead to the resurgence of the Islamic State or ISIS terror group. The power vacuum in Damascus and the allegiance of the rebel leaders make that quite possible.

It took just two seismic weeks to overthrow a 50-year-old rule in Syria, which had survived an Arab Spring revolt in 2011 that led to regime change in Egypt, Libya, Tunisia and Yemen. But there is more to what meets the eye. Now, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) will lead the rebel coalition.

The HTS was linked with al-Qaida earlier and considered a terrorist organisation by the US.

Experts told Reuters that they are concerned about whether an HTS-led rebel coalition would intend to and be able to stop the Islamic State.

Syria was the staging ground for ISIS — the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria.

President Bashar al-Assad, with indirect help from the US, kept the Islamic State at bay since 2019, according to a Reuters report.

Though the Islamic State has been restricted to some pockets in Syria, everyone realises how it can see a rapid growth due to power vacuum in Damascus.

US President Joe Biden welcomed the fall of Assad regime but called it a moment of “risk and uncertainty”.

President-elect Donald Trump has categorically said that it was none of US’s business, and Americans should stay away from it. The only way to get Trump invested in Syria’s business is to get him invested in Syria’s business, to offer him something, reported Politico.

WHERE IS THE ISLAMIC STATE NOW? WHAT ARE ITS CAPABILITIES?

Even under Assad, not all areas of Syria were ruled by him.

The Islamic State has survived in northeastern Syria.

From January to June 2024, ISIS has claimed 153 attacks in Iraq and Syria, according to a report by the US Central Command (USCENTOM), which has been flagging the persistent threat from the Islamic State.

At this pace, the number of attacks in 2024, the US military report said, would end up double of what was seen in 2023.

“The increase in attacks indicates ISIS is attempting to reconstitute following several years of decreased capability,” the USCENTOM said.

The US has 900 soldiers stationed in Syria, especially in the northeastern parts, to tackle the threat of the Islamic State.

Reports of dozens of airstrikes on Islamic State targets emerged immediately after the fall of the Assad regime on the weekend.

The CENTCOM stated that it has attacked more than 75 targets, including ISIS leaders, operatives, and camps, to ensure that advantage is not taken of the chaotic situation.

Areas of Syria were ruled by those with military muscle. Turkey-backed forces in the north, Kurdish forces in the northeast and the HTS in the northwest.

The fall of Bashar al-Assad, who provided a semblance of authority and government in the war-torn country, might lead to a power vacuum. The Islamic State would look to utilise that to rejuvenate itself.

THE RISE OF ISLAMIC STATE AND HOW IT WAS CONTAINED

Assad had the support of Iran and Russia. But the rebel coalition’s leading group, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) is considered to be a terrorist organisation by the US. It used to be backed by al-Qaida, but since 2016 it has delinked itself from it, according to the think-tank Wilson Center.

The Islamic State of Iraq and Syria has been prominent in the area since 2011. Its masked fighters and beheading videos sent chill down the spine of people across the world.

In 2014, the US started its attempts to diminish IS influence in the region.

It was only in 2016 that it was able to do it partially, and it took 2019 to contain IS in northeastern Syria with the help of Kurdish and Turkish forces.

Robert Ford, then US ambassador then, urged the Barack Obama administration to designate the Al Nusra Front, the precursor to Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, a terrorist group because its fighters planted two suicide bombs in Damascus in December 2011. The explosions killed around 44 people outside the security agency.

Trump declared the end of the Islamic State in 2018, but it took the siege of Baghouz to do away with the terror-group in 2019.

The US and Arab nations fear that an HTS-led coalition might replace Assad’s regime with an Islamist government or one that does not stop the return of the Islamic State, analysts and diplomats told Reuters.

“There is strong fear inside and outside the region of the power vacuum that Assad’s sudden collapse may cause,” said Abdelaziz al-Sager, director of the Gulf Research Center, a think tank. He gave the example of civil wars which followed the fall of Iraqi president Saddam Hussein in 2003 and Libyan dictator Muammar Gaddafi in 2011.

ALLEGIANCE OF ABU MUHAMMAD AL-JOLANI, SYRIAN REBEL LEADERS RAISE FEARS

“There should be no doubt — we will not allow ISIS to reconstitute and take advantage of the current situation in Syria,” Centcom Commander Army General Michael Erik Kurilla said in a statement after striking Islmaic State targets in Syria immediately after the ouster of Assad.

“All organisations in Syria should know that we will hold them accountable if they partner with or support ISIS in any way,” Kurilla said.

The power vacuum left after Assad’s removal and HTS’s former affiliation with al-Qaida, make Islamic State’s revival a possibility now. Al-Qaida and the Islamic State had fought for control in Syria.

But strikes by the US on December 8, on the day of Assad’s exit, reveal that it is ready to take on the Islamic State.

It remains cautious of HTS and Jolani. But what is its plan to contain the Islamic State terror group?

The US will try to reach out to all forces from Kurdish to Turkey-backed groups to work in a coalition which does not lead to the rise of Islamic State, said Reuters.

However, dealing with Jolani with kid gloves is being seen with alarm.

Colin P Clarke, a counterterrorism analyst at the Soufan Group, a security consulting firm based in New York, discussed why a soft approach to Jolani and HTS might lead to trouble.

“Jolani has done an amazing job at rehabbing his image; he’s presenting himself as a modern-day revolutionary cut from the same cloth as Che Guevara, and this is resonating in many parts of the Middle East and further abroad,” Clarke told the New York Times. “However, under his rule, northwestern Syria has still been a harsh place where critics are silenced, tortured, jailed and disappeared.”

“Assad is a brutal dictator, but that doesn’t make Jolani more palatable,” Clarke added. “Neither of these individuals should be running Syria, but US policy needs to deal with realities on the ground and not ideal scenarios,” concluded Clarke.

In 2015, now President-elect Donald Trump spoke about those fears.

“We are spending billions of dollars to get Aassad out with people we have no idea who they are,” Trump told CNN in 2015, adding that they could be ISIS.

The end of the Assad regime might bring hope, but it also brings with it the challenge of the Islamic State.

“The end of this regime is a defeat for all who enabled its barbarity and its corruption, none more than Iran, Hezbollah and Russia. So, this moment presents a historic opportunity, but it also carries considerable risks,” US Secretary of State Blinken summarised.