How the US electorates have split ahead of presidential election day between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump

The race between Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Kamala Harris has divided the US electorate along lines of gender, race and education. Trump has improved his standing amongst men – particularly Hispanic men – while Harris’ support has surged amongst women, helping her cut away at the Republicans’ longstanding edge with white voters.

The following figures draw from an analysis of more than 14,000 responses by registered voters in Reuters/Ipsos polls conducted in October of this year and in the same month of 2020. The numbers have levels of precision between 2 and 6 percentage points.

Amongst women, Harris led Trump this month by 12 percentage points: 50% to 38%. By comparison, Biden led Trump by 5 points amongst women voters in October 2020. Some respondents in the polls said they were unsure how they would vote, or that they might pick a third-party candidate or not vote at all.

Democrats’ gains amongst women have been fuelled by Harris’ standing amongst white women. Harris trailed Trump by 2 points amongst white women – 46% to 44% – a much smaller margin than the 16-point lead Trump had over Biden four years earlier.

Amongst men, Trump led Harris by 7 points: 48% to 41%. Ahead of the 2020 election, Trump was leading Biden by 1 point: 45% to 44%.

Trump’s improved standing with male voters was driven in part by his gains amongst Hispanic men. Trump was trailing Harris by just 2 percentage points amongst Hispanic men – 46% to 44% – compared with his 16-point deficit with Biden – 53% to 37% – at the same point in 2020.

Hispanic voters, the fastest-growing segment of the U.S. electorate, have leaned heavily Democratic in most presidential elections since the 1970s, but Trump has made significant inroads. Trump had the support of 38% of registered Hispanic voters, up from 32% at the same point in 2020. Harris’ share of Hispanic voters was at 50%, compared with Biden’s 54% in October 2020.

Amongst Black voters overall, 68% said they would vote for Harris, down from 74% who said in October 2020 they would vote for Biden. Trump only gained marginally – he was picked by 12% of Black voters this month compared to 11% four years ago. The share of Black voters who said they wouldn’t vote was up slightly, 7% in October of this year compared to 3% just before the 2020 election.

The share of Black men saying they would vote for Harris – 63% – was down 8 points from Biden’s 71% ahead of the 2020 election. The share of Black women picking Harris was down 4 points to 73% from the 77% who said they would vote for Biden in October 2020. Some 19% of Black men and 7% of Black women said in October they would vote for Trump, up from 17% and 5% who said the same in October 2020.

Harris’ 21-point lead amongst Hispanic women – 53% to 32% – was tighter than Biden’s 31-point lead – 56% to 25% – amongst Hispanic women in October 2020.

Trump was the pick of 50% of white voters overall, down from 53% in October 2020. Some 40% of white voters picked Harris, up from 35% who said they would vote for Biden in October 2020. Harris’ gains were mostly fuelled by her advance amongst white women, though she advanced slightly amongst white men as well. Trump’s 18-point lead over Harris amongst white men – 54% to 36% – was narrower than his 20-point lead four years ago.

Amongst voters without a college degree, Trump led Harris in October by 10 points – 49% to 39% – after leading Biden by 2 points four years earlier – 44% to 42%.

College graduates – who make up a smaller share of the electorate but tend to participate more in elections – were heavily Democratic, with Harris leading Trump by 21 points – 55% to 34% – compared with Biden’s 9-point lead in October 2020.