Even Trudeau’s resignation might not save his party, finds survey

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s unpopularity has been seen as a drag on his Liberal Party’s prospects. The governing Liberals have been trailing the opposition Conservatives in the polls, but a new survey has found that public sentiments might not change even if Trudeau resigned as the leader of his party.

The Conservative Party has a lead of 20 points over Trudeau’s Liberal Party, according to a recent Abacus survey.

The Abacus poll found that 59% of those surveyed had a negative opinion of the prime minister, while 33% had a positive view of him, according to a CBC report.

However, a new Angus Reid Institute survey reveals that Canadians’ dissatisfaction with the ruling Liberals extends beyond Trudeau. The poll, which included 3,082 respondents, indicates that Trudeau’s stepping down after the next election could further harm the party’s standing, with more people likely to be driven away from the Liberals than towards them.

“By a two-to-one ratio, this hypothetical pushes more people away from the Liberal party (21%) than towards it (11%); most say it would make no difference (58%). Trudeau vacating the leadership of the party after the next election does not move the needle for a majority of those who voted Liberal in 2015, 2019, or 2021 either, though at least one-in-five of each group of past Liberal voters say this would make them more likely to vote Liberal again,” according to the survey.

Amid ongoing poor polling numbers for the Liberals, Monday’s by-election in Toronto-St Paul’s is seen as a critical test of Trudeau’s leadership, following the resignation of Liberal cabinet minister Carolyn Bennett, according to The Star.

ISSUES PLAGUING THE LIBERALS

Key issues plaguing the Liberals’ popularity include a lack of progress on important matters, as cited by 48% of respondents, and dissatisfaction with Trudeau himself (38%).

Additionally, 29% are displeased with the party’s deficit spending. Major concerns for those dissatisfied include inflation and cost of living (60%), healthcare (53%), housing affordability (40%), environment (37%) and the Taxes (13%).

Potential successors to Trudeau, such as Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland, former Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney, Public Safety Minister Dominic LeBlanc, and President of the Treasury Board Anita Anand, are viewed unfavourably by the public.

Freeland, although somewhat popular among committed Liberal voters, remains the most unpopular among the general populace, with a net 20% of respondents saying they’d be less likely to support the Liberals under her leadership.

Carney has the highest approval among all voters with 14 per cent, yet a net 4 per cent still indicated they’d be less likely to support the Liberals if he became leader.

Other potential candidates were even less popular, with the poll suggesting they would drive more voters away from the party than attract them.

LIBERALS CONTINUE TO LAG THE CONSERVATIVES IN THE POLLS

As the Liberals trail behind the Conservatives in recent polls, some Liberal MPs are questioning the party’s ability to reverse its fortunes. The government has set a goal to close the gap with the opposition by five points by July. Despite expectations that the spring budget would boost their polling numbers, the desired effect has not yet been achieved.

“Nearly half (48%) cited the party’s perceived lack of progress on important issues as a reason for their hesitation. About three-in-ten (31%) pointed to concerns about Justin Trudeau’s leadership, while a similar proportion (29%) mentioned the government’s deficit spending,” stated the survey.

“Specific policies, such as the Liberal Party’s positions on the Israel-Hamas conflict and recent changes to capital gains taxes, were less significant factors but still caused hesitation for around one-in-eight potential supporters,” the survey added.