Antony Blinken says Israel ‘very serious’ about Lebanon offensive: Report

During a recent trip to the Middle East, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken reportedly informed an Arab counterpart that Israel appears intent on launching an incursion into Lebanon, as per a report by CNN.

In response, the Arab official emphasised that Hezbollah has vowed to continue its strikes on Israel until Israeli operations in Gaza cease, the report mentioned.

Antony Blinken, however, told Israeli officials of the need to avoid further escalation in Lebanon amid the ongoing war in Gaza.

The escalating tensions between Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah have prompted concerns about a broader conflict in the region.

Israeli officials have communicated to the US that a primary objective of any offensive would be to push Hezbollah back, creating a buffer zone to allow tens of thousands of displaced Israelis from the northern region to return home.

The US has been wary of an Israeli incursion for months, with earlier intelligence assessments predicting a possible offensive by early summer. The US has also criticised Israel for strikes that have impacted the Lebanese army, rather than Hezbollah targets, heightening tensions between the allies.

Domestic political pressures are mounting on the Israeli government to address the northern security situation. Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant underscored the urgency during an operational assessment at the IDF’s Northern Command, stating, “We are achieving readiness on land and in the air.”

He emphasised the necessity of changing the northern situation to ensure the safe return of Israeli citizens to their homes.

International concerns are growing over the potential for a full-scale conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, which could draw in other proxy groups. US officials fear for the safety of thousands of American troops stationed in the Middle East, who could become targets for Iran-backed proxy groups if a war breaks out.

Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah issued a stark warning on Wednesday, asserting that if war is “imposed” on Lebanon, Hezbollah will fight with “no rules and no ceilings,” indicating that nowhere would be safe from their attacks, including the eastern Mediterranean where over 1,000 US troops are currently stationed. Nasrallah also threatened to target Cyprus if it permitted Israel to use its airports and bases for strikes on Lebanon.

Hezbollah’s ground force, estimated to be between 40,000 and 50,000 fighters by the Congressional Research Service, could potentially exceed 1,00,000 according to Nasrallah. Many of these fighters, including the elite Radwan Force, have gained extensive combat experience in Syria.

Despite the historical state of conflict, the Israel-Lebanon border has remained relatively quiet since the 2006 war, with only sporadic clashes that typically resolved quickly.

However, the situation has dramatically shifted since Hamas’ attack on October 7, leading to increased rocket and drone attacks from Hezbollah and frequent IDF strikes in southern Lebanon.

Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has issued stern warnings as well, stating that Israel would “turn Beirut into Gaza” if war breaks out.

Despite these threats, analysts believe that neither side is eager for an all-out war, recognizing the severe risks and potential for regional destabilization.

(with inputs from Reuters)