UK general elections: Experts predict defeat for Conservative Party, calls Rishi Sunak worst Britain PM

The Conservative Party, led by Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, is bracing for what analysts predict could be a consequential defeat in the history of British elections. At least three British opinion polls recently predicted a very grim chance for Sunak and his party, with one pollster claiming an “electoral extinction” in the July 4 polls.

Recent opinion polls indicate a significant drop in support, with the Tories projected to win only 72 seats out of 650 in the upcoming general elections.

Political experts suggest this could be the worst defeat in the Conservative Party’s history.

Rob Ford, Professor of Politics at Manchester University, claimed that the ruling party is set to go below 30 per cent, adding that Rishi Sunak has the worst prime ministerial approval rating.

“They are set to go below 30 per cent. They have never gone below this, and you see a very consistent pattern. Rishi Sunak has the worst prime ministerial approval rating of any Prime Minister. The share of voters saying that the government is doing a bad job is the highest it has ever been,” Ford told India Today TV.

After 14 years of Conservative rule, there is a growing demand for change among the electorate, exacerbated by one of the worst cost-of-living crisis in Britain.

Professor Anand Menon, Director of UK in a Changing Europe, also echoed similar concerns and said that it is very hard to win an election if a party has been in power for over 14 years.

It’s very hard to win an election if you have been in power for over 14 years. People start thinking in terms of change. Secondly, it is quite hard to win an election when you have presided over a cost-of-living crisis. Added to this are the problems created by the conservatives themselves. Party gate saw a significant drop in support for the Conservatives, followed by the Liz Truss mini-budget. So, there are layers of problems,” Menon said.

Since David Cameron’s resignation post-Brexit, the role of Prime Minister in the UK has changed hands multiple times, with Theresa May, Boris Johnson, Liz Truss, and Rishi Sunak each serving in quick succession.

This rapid turnover contrasts sharply with the preceding 28 years, which saw only three prime ministers: Margaret Thatcher, John Major, and Tony Blair.

Experts argue that while Liz Truss, who served as Prime Minister for only 45 days, is seen as having caused significant damage to the party, Rishi Sunak has done little to repair it.

“He (Sunak) was dealt a very bad hand, in particular by Liz Truss, but also by Boris Johnson through Party gate. Those are all things out of his control, but he has taken this bad hand and played it very poorly,” Rob Ford said.

“Sunak hasn’t been able to find a way to turn things around. He hasn’t been able to deliver on his key pledges. He hasn’t been able to persuade voters who are naturally on the conservative side of the spectrum to stick with him. So, he started with a very bad inheritance, but he has not been able to make it any better, which is not good leadership,” he added.

In Richmond, the wealthiest constituency in the UK, professionals express uncertainty about their votes. Pranam, an IT professional, participating in a friendly cricket match, said, “It’s not about Rishi or anyone, but both parties are not very clear about the agenda. They are talking about the NHS, the police force, immigration, but I hope they go deeper and explain their plan. They are all doing high-level lip service”.

A Survation poll for Best for Britain, published by The Times, predicts Labour could secure 456 seats. However, not all Labour supporters are satisfied. Liam, a lifelong Labour voter, stated, “I have voted Labour all my life, but I won’t vote Labour this time,” expressing his disillusionment with the party under Sir Keir Starmer.

Sophie Stowers, a researcher for the largest survey on the ethnic minority vote by UK in a Changing Europe, noted that while Rishi Sunak is more positively viewed among British Indians than any other ethnic group, most British Indians are likely to vote Labour in the next election.

“Most British Indians are going to vote Labour in the next general elections, even though we are seeing a higher rate of Conservative vote intention amongst that group than any other ethnic minority group. At this point in time, the Conservatives are so unpopular that it’s not happening in practical terms,” Stowers said.

Rupesh Agarwal, an HR professional in Richmond, shares similar sentiments. While he favours Rishi Sunak, he remains uncertain about his vote. Richmond is a Liberal Democrat stronghold.

Latest opinion polls suggest Labour is set for a majority with 262 seats, surpassing the landslide victory under Tony Blair in 1997. The Liberal Democrats are expected to win 56 seats, Reform seven, and the Greens one seat, leaving the Conservatives trailing with just 72 seats.