H-1B visa denial rate drops, but curbs could return under Trump: Report

The H-1B visa programme, much sought after by high-skilled foreign professionals seeking work in the United States, has seen a notable decline in denial rates for initial employment in recent years. In the fiscal year 2024, the denial rate for H-1B visa petitions for initial employment remained relatively low at 2.5%, down from 3.5% in FY 2023. This has been a trend with Joe Biden in the White House but might change with Donald Trump taking over as the US President in January.

The H-1B visa denial rate was down at 2.2% in FY 2022 from 4% in FY 2021.

This trend was highlighted in the National Foundation for American Policy’s (NFAP) study titled ‘H-1B Petitions and Denial Rates in FY2024’.

However, with the incoming Trump administration, there is a potential for a return to more restrictive policies that could increase denial rates, similar to those seen during Trump’s first term when denial rates peaked at 30% in FY2020.

INCREASED SCRUTINY OF H-1B VISA PROGRAMME UNDER TRUMP

Donald Trump will assume office as the 47th President of the United States in January. He defeated Democrat Kamala Harris in the US presidential election which was held on November 5.

During his first term, the Trump administration implemented several measures to restrict immigration, including opposing the H-1B visa programme, which included increased scrutiny.

The denial rate for H-1B petitions for initial employment increased from 6% in FY 2015 to 24% in FY 2018 and 30% by FY 2020. The average denial rate for H-1B visas rose from approximately 3.2% under President Obama to around 18% under Trump.

The H-1B visa for initial employment are for new jobs, as opposed to visa extension for continued jobs.

The annual limit on new H-1B petitions is 85,000 — 65,000 H-1B visa regular cap and 20,000 H-1B visa US advanced degree exemption.

The US Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) recently announced that it had received enough petitions to reach H-1B visa cap for fiscal year 2025.

H-1B VISA ESSENTIAL FOR US EMPLOYERS

The H-1B visa programme remains essential for US employers hiring skilled professionals. In FY 2024, over 30,000 employers had at least one H-1B petition approved for initial employment, with more than half of these approvals going to employers filing fewer than 20 applications, demonstrating the programme’s importance across diverse industries like technology and healthcare.

About half the approved new H-1B petitions in FY 2024 (49.1%) were in professional, scientific and technical services, followed by educational services (11.9%), manufacturing (9.3%), and health care and social assistance (6.5%).

Employers in California (23,590), Texas (21,575), New York (12,326), New Jersey (11,188) and Virginia (7,802) had the most approvals of H-1B petitions for initial employment in FY2024.

TOP US COMPANIES REDUCE H-1B SPONSORSHIPS, BUT TESLA REPORTS GROWTH

H-1B visa holders are primarily from India.

In fiscal 2023, Indian nationals made up 72.3% of the 386,000 H-1B visas issued, while Chinese nationals accounted for 11.7%.

But this year’s data shows a decline in H-1B sponsorships by most major firms. For the fiscal year 2024, which runs from October 1, 2023, to September 30, 2024, nearly all of the top 15 H-1B sponsoring companies, which include Google, Amazon, Infosys, IBM, reduced their approvals. Indian IT firms, including Infosys and Tata Consultancy Services (TCS), also recorded substantial reductions.

In FY2024, Amazon had the most approved H-1B petitions for initial employment, at 3,871, lower than its totals of 4,052 in FY 2023 and 6,396 in FY 2022. This was followed by Cognizant (2,837), Infosys (2,504), TCS (1,452), IBM (1,348), Microsoft (1,264), HCL America (1,248), Google (1,058), Capgemini (1,041) and Meta Platforms (920).

Notably, Elon Musk-owned electric vehicle maker Tesla showed a significant increase in approvals in FY2024, rising to 16th position after not featuring among the top 25 employers in previous years.

It saw 742 – more than double its total of 328 in FY 2023 and 337 in FY 2022.

“Given Tesla’s needs in manufacturing, research and development and other areas, the company requested H-1B visa holders to fill many positions for engineering, software, supply management and other specialities,” the report said.

The US unemployment rate in computer and mathematical occupations was low at 2.5% in November 2024. Despite some claims that H-1B professionals are “cheap labour”, the average annual salary for an H-1B visa holder in computer-related occupations in 2023 was $132,000, with a median salary of $122,000.

Legal and government fees for filing an initial H-1B petition and an extension can cost employers up to $34,900, and up to $50,000 if sponsoring an employee for permanent residence, according to the NFAP report.

Academic research shows H-1B visa holders are paid the same or higher than comparable US workers.