US election 2024 swing states that will determine fate of Kamala Harris Donald Trump

With the 2024 US presidential election set to go down the wire, it will be up to the seven swing states to determine the fate of Democratic candidate Kamala Harris, 60, and her Republican rival and former President Donald Trump, 78. These pivotal states — Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin — have 93 electoral votes and are the primary battlegrounds as both candidates vie for the 270 of the total 538 electoral votes required to secure the presidency.

Swing states, or battleground states, are those that can shift between Democratic and Republican support depending on the election. These states, with historically narrow voting margins and varied outcomes over time, draw significant attention from candidates, who focus their campaigns there to sway voters and secure crucial electoral votes. On the final day of campaigning, both Harris and Trump held marathon rallies in Pennsylvania, the largest of the swing states with 19 electoral college votes.

The US presidential election is set for November 5.

THE IMPORTANCE OF KEY SWING STATES

While all seven states are essential to either campaign, three states in particular — Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin — are crucial for Harris’s path to victory. Known as the “Blue Wall”, these states were reliable Democratic strongholds until Trump flipped all three in 2016, breaking the Democrats’ winning streak in the region.

In 2020, Joe Biden reclaimed these states for the Democrats, but by narrow margins, highlighting their competitive nature and making them must-wins for Harris in 2024.

• Pennsylvania (19 Electoral Votes): Historically, Pennsylvania has leaned towards the Democrats, but Trump’s narrow 2016 win by just 0.7% underscored its battleground status. In 2020, Biden reclaimed Pennsylvania by a 1.2% margin, but it remains highly competitive. With the state having 19 electoral votes, winning Pennsylvania would provide a significant boost to Harris’s White House hopes. Both the campaigns fervently wooed the state’s large working-class and unionised communities.
• Michigan (15 Electoral Votes): Another key part of the “Blue Wall”, Michigan has consistently voted for the winning candidate in recent elections. Trump’s 2016 victory in Michigan was a major upset, marking the first Republican win there since 1988. In 2020, Biden won Michigan by a margin of about 154,000 votes, thanks in part to support from the state’s significant Arab-American population. Retaining Michigan in 2024 is seen as vital for Harris, as its 15 electoral votes could prove decisive in a close race.
• Wisconsin (10 Electoral Votes): The state has voted for the winning candidate in the last two elections, but by razor-thin margins. Winning Wisconsin will be crucial for Harris, as flipping or retaining it could make or break the overall balance in a tight election.

THE REMAINING BATTLEGROUNDS

In addition to the “Blue Wall”, four other battleground states are in play:

• Arizona (11 Electoral Votes): Biden’s 2020 victory in Arizona made him only the second Democrat in 70 years to win the state, albeit by a slim margin of 10,457 votes. With significant suburban and Latino voter bases, Arizona remains a top priority for both campaigns.

• Georgia (16 Electoral Votes): Biden narrowly flipped Georgia in 2020, the first Democratic victory there since 1992, largely due to high voter turnout among African Americans, who comprise a significant portion of the state’s population. Winning Georgia again could bolster Harris’s electoral count and further cement Democratic strength in the Sun Belt.

• North Carolina (16 Electoral Votes): Despite its Republican-leaning history, North Carolina remains competitive. Trump won by smaller margins in 2016 and 2020, but the state’s growing urban centres and demographic shifts keep it in contention for both parties.

• Nevada (6 Electoral Votes): Typically leaning towards Democrats, Nevada has shown signs of potential Republican resurgence due to high unemployment and economic challenges. Biden won Nevada by about 33,600 votes in 2020, but with issues like post-Covid recovery at the forefront, Nevada could swing red in 2024.

PATH TO VICTORY

Nonpartisan analysts estimate that Harris needs about 45 electoral votes beyond her expected “safe” states to reach 270, heavily banking on Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Securing these three “Blue Wall” states could put her well on the way to victory.

For Trump, the path to 270 would likely require reclaiming key battlegrounds he won in 2016, particularly Pennsylvania and Michigan, along with success in historically Democrat-leaning states like North Carolina.

In the run-up to the polls, both Harris and Trump have campaigned intensively in these swing states. Harris has emphasised themes of unity and community, aiming to solidify support within the “Blue Wall” and Sun Belt states. On the other hand, Trump focussed on criticising the current administration and promising economic recovery.