Why US presidential candidates mortally scared of October before November Presidential Election

“I anticipate something will happen in October, as it always does… There will be concerted efforts to distort and pervert Kamala Harris, who she is, what she stands for, what’s she’s done,” warned Democrat Hillary Clinton. The warning from the former Secretary of State came in early October with the US Presidential Election less than a month away.

As Hillary Clinton warned Harris, she summoned the infamous ‘October Surprise’. After all, she knows what the ‘surprise’ can do to a presidential candidate.

Being on the receiving end of the ‘surprise’ in 2016, Hillary Clinton faced a two-month campaign wherein several emails and excerpts of her were released on Wikileaks, that ultimately proved a blow to her Oval Office ambitions.

‘October Surprise’, which denotes a course-changing event before the US Presidential election, could impact the upcoming race as the Middle East crisis unfolds, along with criticism of the Biden-Harris administration’s response to Hurricane Helene and protests by dockworkers.

But first let’s look up where the ‘Surprise’ comes from and how it entered the American political lexicon.

WHAT IS THE OCTOBER SURPRISE?

The term ‘October Surprise’ appeared in the early 20th century, to refer to a department store clothing sale advertised in newspapers, taking place during the fall (autumn), according to the Merriam-Webster dictionary.

Later on, it got a political touch in the US, a nation obsessed with slangs.

‘October surprise’ has become a jargon since the 1980s, commonly used by political pundits to denote an important event, deliberate or planned, that could undermine one candidate’s prospects while proving to be a push for the other in the US Presidential election. The event typically occurs in the month leading up to the crucial November election, giving it the ‘October’ in ‘October surprise’ and defining the term.

Although coined by Republican Ronald Reagan’s campaign manager William Joseph Casey during the 1980 presidential campaign, significant election-altering events in October had occurred even before the term was coined.

During the 1980 presidential election, Republican Reagan alleged that a last-minute agreement to release the American hostages in Iran could provide incumbent President Jimmy Carter with enough support to secure re-election. However, things turned against Carter and he lost.

The ‘October Surprise’, that has repeatedly disrupted or appeared poised to disrupt American presidential elections over the years, might be making a comeback.

WILL OCTOBER 2024 SURPRISE THE US BEFORE NOVEMBER 5 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION?

With the first anniversary of the October 7 Hamas attack on Israel, the Middle East on the verge of all-out war, and concerns raised by Hillary Clinton about social media disinformation from Russia, Iran, China, and pro-Trump media, the ‘October Surprise’ looms again ahead of the closely contested November election.

Given the tight contest between Trump and Harris, with most polls in swing states showing results within the margin of error, any of the poll issues could be crucial and turn into events. The few who remain undecided, especially in the swing states, could be swayed by these last-minute developments, is the fear.

In light of the concerns about potential last-minute events that could influence the outcome of the tightly contested race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, here are the few issues that could play a spoilsport with the potential to sway undecided voters or alter the narrative of the campaign on the eve of the election.

The Middle East is on the brink of an all-out war, with recent missile strikes by Iran on Israel marking a massive escalation in the region’s year-long war. The Hamas war that turned one today, combined with Israel’s offensive into Lebanon presents multiple challenges for not just the parties involved, but for the US, which has allied with Israel and its offensives through some of the most violent human rights violations as alleged by critics.

On the other hand, the US is also wary of asking Benjamin Netanyahu to tone the heat down, or being drawn into the war.

In the meantime, Israel, under the somewhat unpopular Netanyahu, has intelligently used the US election window to carry out its intensified rampage on its hostile neighbours and proxies. In the poll-bound US, none of the candidates, Democrats Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump are at the risk of losing their voter base, if they happen to suggest de-escalation of the war. Israel, on the other hand, wants to extract the most out of the period, militarily.

US politicians, regardless of their political affiliation, cannot afford to ignore this, especially with the influence of the domestic war lobby in mind.

Republican candidate and former president Donald Trump is facing renewed scrutiny due to the surfacing 165-page document released by special counsel Jack Smith, detailing a federal investigation into alleged interference in the 2020 Presidential election, when Trump lost to outgoing President Joe Biden.

The document is said to have chalked out Trump’s extensive efforts to overturn the election outcome. The 165-page document could lead some voters to reevaluate Donald Trump’s suitability for the presidency.

On the domestic front, a strike by approximately 45,000 dockworkers, affecting 36 ports from Maine to Texas, could have a sway on the Democratic prospects in the November election. The labour dispute, which included demands for a 77% wage hike over six years and a ban on automation, is believed to exacerbate inflation and disrupt key ocean shipping routes, potentially influencing voter sentiment.

However, for now, the dockworkers are returning to work after their union reached a deal to suspend a strike that could have caused shortages and higher prices if it had dragged on, reported the Associated Press.

Hurricane Helene that inflicted significant damage in the states of North Carolina and Georgia, two critical electoral battlegrounds, might also be a factor. The resulting crisis, killing more than 227, has become a political issue.

Harris and President Joe Biden, during their visit to the Carolinas, tried to show their commitment and competence in supporting devastated communities. It was seen as an attempt to counter false claims from former President Donald Trump about the administration’s response, reported the Associated Press.

“There’s nobody that’s handled a hurricane or storm worse than what they’re [Biden-Harris administration] doing right now,” Donald Trump had alleged.

Hillary Clinton has also warned about the potential for social media disinformation campaigns orchestrated by Russia, Iran, China, and pro-Trump media outlets, reported USA Today. Such disinformation could distort public perceptions of the candidates, particularly targeting Kamala Harris, Clinton underlined.

HILLARY CLINTON TO DONALD TRUMP, FOXED BY OCTOBER SURPRISE

That said, the ‘October Surprise’, not so much of a modern phenomenon, has influenced US polls in the past. Although it all started during the attack on the US embassy in Iran and the hostage crisis of 1980, it has made a mark in US elections as recently as 2016, when Wikileaks’ shock ruined a Democratic victory, and the Covid-19 wave in 2020, a response to which was said to have costed Donald Trump a re-election.

IRANIAN HOSTAGE CRISIS CLAIMED CARTER IN 1980

During the 1980 presidential election, President Jimmy Carter’s failure to secure the release of American hostages held in Iran was a major issue. There were allegations that the Reagan campaign negotiated with Iranian officials to delay the release of the hostages until after the election, which could have boosted Carter’s chances if the hostages were freed before the vote.

The event in Tehran, though never proven, is often cited as a classic example of an October Surprise. Republican Regan won the election and became the American President in 1980.

On January 20, 1981, the day of Reagan’s presidential inauguration, just minutes after he finished delivering his inaugural address, Iran announced the release of 52 American hostages who had been held captive for 444 days.

HOW WIKILEAKS LEFT HILLARY CLINTON BATTERED IN 2016

Right before the 2016 presidential election, Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton, faced the massive Wikileaks scandal that would cost her presidency. On October 7, WikiLeaks launched a two-month-long series of email dumps, later dubbed the “Podesta Leaks,” which involved thousands of emails from the chairman of Clinton’s presidential campaign.

These emails showed a number of controversial details, including her conflicting stances on some issues, that came to bite Clinton. An email also suggested that a debate question had been known to Clinton before a primary debate.

Just 11 days before the 2016 presidential election, FBI Director James Comey sent a letter to Congress announcing to open an investigation into Hillary Clinton’s use of a private email server. Although the investigation ultimately did not change the FBI’s previous conclusion, the announcement narrowed Clinton’s lead in the polls and is widely speculated to have brought her defeat.

By 2020, the term was so widely used that it came to describe any election-related news happening in October, noted a Rutgers News piece.

NYT AND COVID STING TRUMP IN 2020

The 2020 ‘October Surprises’ began with The New York Times publishing an investigation into then President Donald Trump’s taxes, revealing he had paid only $750 in taxes in 2016 and 2017. The report also indicated that Trump was over $400 million in debt. On October 16, Forbes contradicted this, stating the debt exceeded $1 billion.

The investigations that saw Trump being ousted in the election made some term it an ‘October Surprise’.

Again, the same year, when Trump and his wife Melania Trump were hospitalised after being tested positive for Covid-19, many viewed it as another October Surprise. It was a part of a larger outbreak within the White House, while the US topped 9 million Covid-19 cases that month. Disease expert Anthony Fauci labelled the White House outbreak a “super-spreader,” that infected over 30 people, including senior White House officials.

Trump, who had initially downplayed the Covid-19 threat and made repeated alleged false claims regarding the virus, faced public scrutiny.

“Relative to other issues, most voters — even many Trump supporters — saw the pandemic as a weakness for the incumbent. Attitudes toward and experiences with COVID affected vote choice, but perhaps less than one would have expected ex ante, because Trump supporters downplayed the pandemic, consistently said the worst of the crisis had passed, and emphasised instead issues on which they felt Trump outperformed Biden, such as the economy.” noted American professor Kathleen Hall Jamieson, in her book ‘Democracy amid Crises: Polarization, Pandemic, Protests, and Persuasion’.

Although the ‘October Surprises’ have been said to have swayed voters in US elections, presidential or otherwise, its exact impact cannot be quantified and assessed. But a plethora of issues taking place in the 2024 US presidential election narrative just a month before the polls on November 5, certainly gives way to speculations if any of these factors or their offshoots can sway votes in favour or against the poll prospects of the contenders.