Bangladesh parties patient on polls but fear a ‘king’s party’

With the fall of the Sheikh Hasina-led Awami League government, the opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) is believed to have the brightest chance of coming to power when the next election is held. The biggest question is when will the next election in Bangladesh be held, and will the BNP contest the election with its earlier partner Jamaat-e-Islami?

Then there is also the fear of the emergence of a “king’s party” if the election is delayed too much. That is a reference to a new party that might have the military’s blessing.

Bangladesh has seen prolonged years of military rule and army-backed regimes. The military doesn’t seem to have an appetite for backing an interim government for too long, given the current popular sentiment.

Bangladesh Army chief, General Waker-Uz-Zaman, is backing an interim government and promised to hold early elections and a return to civilian rule soon.

A top BNP leader and a Jamaat member told IndiaToday.In that elections can’t be put off for long, and even the interim government of Muhammad Yunus was aware of that.

However, everyone agrees that the institutions that had taken a particular shape during the 15 years under Sheikh Hasina need to be revamped first.

“All political parties keep preparing for elections. But the situation now in Bangladesh is not mature enough to think about elections. Now is the time to handle the problems created by the earlier regime and solve the crises. Restoring law and order is a priority, and bringing in reforms is the focus area,” says Nazrul Islam Khan, a member of the BNP’s national standing committee.

“However, elections can’t be postponed indefinitely. The time cannot be predicted right now. But I don’t think it will take a long time to hold the next election,” Khan tells IndiaToday.In from Dhaka.

Jamaat-e-Islami too feels that it’s time for restoration of institutions, but elections need to be conducted within 1.5 years.

“I hope elections are held sooner than later. There has been tremendous damage done to institutions that are the cornerstones of democracy, be it judiciary, election commission, or the police. Restoration needs time, but it can’t be too long a process,” says Muhammad Nakibur Rahman, Jamaat-e-Islami member and professor of finance at University of North Carolina.

Nakibur Rahman is the son of Motiur Rahman Nizami, the former president of Jamaat-e-Islami.

WHY BANGLADESH ELECTION CAN’T BE PUT OFF FOR LONG

The Election Commission of Bangladesh deregistered the Jamaat, a radical right-wing party, after a High Court decision in 2018.

However, Jamaat was included in the all-party talks that General Waker-Uz-Zaman held after Hasina escaped from Bangladesh amid protesters marching towards her residence on August 5. Jamaat members have been blamed for the violent protests, but its leaders say there is no evidence to link it to the violence.

Jamaat’s Muhammad Nakibur Rahman fears the emergence of a “king’s party” if the military-backed interim government stays on for too long. He expects the elections to be held within 1.5 years.

“If the interim government stays on for too long, because it isn’t an elected one, there might be efforts to launch a new political party, generally called a king’s party. Then democracy is gone, because elections won’t be free and fair,” Rahman tells IndiaToday.In

“I expect the elections to be held in a reasonable time from 9 months to one year. I would be worried if it exceeds 1.5 years, and paranoid it exceeds 2 years,” adds Rahman.

BNP’s Nazrul Islam Khan says the members of the interim government were aware of the fact.

“They must hand over power to the people by transferring control to an elected government,” says Khan, a Bangladeshi freedom fighter.

WHY IT ADVANTAGES THE BNP IN NEXT ELECTION

The BNP and Jamaat coalition government came to power in 2001 and ruled for five years with BNP’s Khaleda Zia as the Prime Minister. Bangladesh then saw an interim government for 3 years, before Sheikh Hasina won the election and became PM in 2009.

Jamaat’s Rahman says that Hasina came to power with overwhelming numbers because of support from the military. He adds that the military in Bangladesh can tip the scales in favour of any party. That’s why he fears a “king’s party”.

With Hasina escaping from Bangladesh after the anti-quota protests turned into an agitation for her ouster, the Awami League has lost its edge. The three consecutive terms of Hasina and her authoritarian rule have turned popular sentiments against the Awami League.

“If today we have an election, the BNP is coming to power, no doubt about that. There are more people who dislike the Awami League now,” says Rahman.

He adds that winning an election isn’t everything, and the police, judiciary and other institutions won’t change and cooperate. “It is in the interest of the BNP’s survival post-election that the interim government stays for some time,” he adds.

BNP’s Khan says the Awami League won’t stand a chance in the next elections.4

“The Awami League misruled the country for a long time. You have seen how people reacted during the protests. As a political party, they have every right to participate in the elections, but I think they have no chance in the coming years,” he says.

However, Jamaat’s Rahman doesn’t rule off the Awami League, given its core voter base.

Bangladeshi-American political analyst Shafquat Rabbee gives a rough breakdown of the voter base in the absence of opinion polls.

He says political allegiance in Bangladesh would indicate that about 40% of Bangladeshis are supporters of the Awami League and 40% support the BNP. The remaining 20% are split among Jamat, Jatiya Party and other Islamic and communist parties.

Rabbee says the Awami League has a good grassroots network but will take time to regroup after the recent debacle.

WILL THE BNP GET INTO A PRE-POLL ALLIANCE WITH JAMAAT

The BNP, which boycotted the last two elections, held a show of strength in Dhaka and thousands gathered there, according to the Dhaka Tribune.

Jamaat’s Rahman says a BNP-Jamaat alliance is natural and there are common ideological components as well.

“You can see an overlap between the supporters of the BNP and the Jamaat. A BNP-Jamaat alliance seals the deal, helps both the parties,” he says.

“In a district like Jessore, an Awami League stronghold, the vote share difference between the Awami League and the BNP isn’t big. Jamaat’s vote transfer helps in such cases. With an alliance, it becomes a binary choice between BNP-Jamaat and the Awami League,” explains Rahman.

However, he admits that the alliance isn’t as airtight as it was in 2001.

“After August 5, things have changed. The Awami League has significantly weakened and won’t come to power. The BNP and Jamaat can fight separately and see who wins how many seats and can have a post-poll coalition government. There could also be pre-poll alliance. All those things are up in the air,” adds Rahman.

Veteran BNP leader Nazrul Islam Khan believes his party can win the next election going alone too.

“The BNP is strong enough to win enough seats to form the government on its own,” he says, but hints at a larger alliance.

“Our Acting Chairman [Tarique Rahman; Khaleda Zia’s son] committed that all the parties fighting for restoring democracy would work together to rebuild the nation through implementing the 31-point State Reconstruction Programmes when the future elected government takes charge,” he adds.

Though an alliance isn’t certain, a couple of things are as clear as the day. An election might take over a year, but with any delay there will be the fear of the emergence of a party blessed by the military, which might make Bangladesh’s road to democracy some more bumpy.